JUNE CLIMATE MEETINGS: EXPECTATIONS AND KEY ISSUES AHEAD OF COP31
From 8 to 18 June 2026, Bonn, Germany, will host SB64 – the 64th session of the Subsidiary Bodies of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) – the June climate talks ahead of COP31. Once again, this June meeting will serve as a vital stepping stone to pave the way for decisions to be adopted at COP31 in Antalya, Turkey, and beyond.
Following a COP30 in Brazil marked by both significant progress and clear limitations on critical issues such as mitigation, fossil fuels, and climate finance, Bonn will be a crucial testing ground. Will the decisions adopted in Belém help break years of negotiation stalemates, ushering in a new era focused on implementation?
As every year, Italian Climate Network will follow the negotiations with an on-site and remote delegation, keeping you updated through our free and independent COP Bulletin. You can subscribe here to receive it.
Where we left off
COP30 reconfirmed the centrality of the 1.5°C target, at a time when global average temperatures already temporarily breached this threshold in 2024. Concrete progress was also made on adaptation, the Global Stocktake, Just Transition, Loss and Damage, Article 6, and the Gender Action Plan.
On mitigation, despite calls for collective mobilization to strengthen global climate action, the overall outcome remains weak. The final texts failed to include a roadmap for transitioning away from fossil fuels—limiting it to an initiative led by the COP30 Presidency—nor did they significantly strengthen mechanisms to close ambition and implementation gaps in NDCs. However, two voluntary initiatives were launched under the guidance of the COP30 and COP31 Presidencies: the Global Implementation Accelerator and the Belém Mission to 1.5, aimed at scaling up the ambition and implementation of national mitigation and adaptation plans. For a detailed breakdown of the overall outcome of COP30, you can read our final analysis here.
Regarding the Global Goal on Adaptation (GGA), the adoption of around fifty voluntary indicators to track progress represents a major milestone, but discussions on metadata, methodologies, and reporting remain open. Politically, finance continues to be the main hurdle: without new, predictable, and accessible resources, these indicators risk remaining a purely technical exercise.
On climate finance, COP30 demonstrated how deeply dissatisfied developing countries were with the decision on the new target set at COP29 (the New Collective Quantified Goal, or NCQG). Driven particularly by India and the Arab Group, developed countries ultimately had to yield. As a result, the COP decided to establish a two-year work programme to discuss climate finance, including Article 9.1 within the context of Article 9. Additionally, the Mutirao text calls for efforts to triple adaptation finance by 2035, anchoring this commitment within the NCQG target.
COP30 also decided to develop a Just Transition Mechanism, one of the most significant outcomes of the Brazilian summit. In Belém, Just Transition gained ground especially in its social dimension, with explicit references to human rights protection, decent work, social protection, skills, and inclusivity. At the same time, however, the compromises reached at COP30 lacked an explicit link between a Just Transition, the phase-out of fossil fuels, and energy system transformation. While critical minerals had been brought up during discussions on the Just Transition work programme, the topic was ultimately omitted from the final decision text. The debate continues to be driven by divergences among Parties regarding the political and operational meaning of a Just Transition and how it should translate into practice.
Initial informal consultations held in March 2026 between the COP30 and COP31 Presidencies and the Parties have already confirmed some of the main fault lines heading toward Antalya: the inadequacy of current NDCs relative to the 1.5°C target, expectations for a fully operational Just Transition Mechanism, the need to scale up climate finance, and the central role of implementing the outcomes of the first Global Stocktake. Concurrently, several countries stressed the importance of ensuring transparent, inclusive, and truly multilateral processes, even in a phase increasingly geared toward implementation.
Expectations for the June Climate Meetings ahead of COP31
SB64 will not be a conference of major political announcements, but rather a decisive session to lay the political and technical groundwork for COP31. As outlined in the SBI and SBSTA agendas, negotiations must advance on many files left open in Belém: from the future of the Mitigation Work Programme to the full operationalization of the Just Transition Mechanism, and from refining the Global Goal on Adaptation indicators to defining the modalities for the second Global Stocktake.
Among the most sensitive tracks will be the Mitigation Work Programme. Following the failure to include a fossil fuel roadmap in the COP30 texts, there is a risk that this forum could lose relevance or conclude without a strengthened mandate. For the Italian Climate Network, this will be one of the key points to watch: without a dedicated negotiating space for emissions reduction, the Paris Agreement risks being undermined on its core objective.
On adaptation, Bonn will need to advance technical work on the GGA indicators and launch preparations for the framework review. The political challenge will be determining whether this new phase can successfully link indicators, National Adaptation Plans (NAPs), reporting, and finance, or if discussions will remain fragmented.
The Just Transition will be another central litmus test. In Bonn, work will begin to operationalize the Mechanism, which is expected to be debated at COP31, with the goal of strengthening international cooperation, technical assistance, capacity-building, and knowledge sharing. However, its value will hinge on its ability to raise climate ambition, ensuring the new tool does not entrench a “just transition” that is broad on social justice but weak on climate action.
Bonn will also see the launch of the work programme on climate finance. While its modalities, themes, and potential outcomes remain unclear, its significance is already evident. As developing countries frequently emphasize, no progress can be made on other negotiating tracks without climate finance.
On the Global Stocktake, Bonn must begin mapping the path toward the second cycle in 2028. It will be crucial to defend the role of the best available science and ensure inclusive, transparent, and genuinely accessible processes for observers and non-state actors.
Finally, close attention should be paid to Article 6, finance, and trade. Discussions on Article 6.2 will focus on infrastructure, technical reviews, and capacity-building – highly technical yet essential elements for carbon market integrity. On the financial front, negotiations on the Adaptation Fund will continue, while dialogues on trade and unilateral measures (specifically the CBAM) could reignite tensions between developed and developing nations.
While Bonn is unlikely to untangle the political knots left unresolved in Belém, it will show us how much real political space exists to address them at COP31 in Antalya. The underlying question remains: will references to 1.5°C, adaptation, climate justice, and implementation translate into processes backed by tools, accountability, and resources, or will they remain shared formulas on paper but weak in practice?
The mid-year talks must therefore be viewed through the lens of COP31, yet even Antalya will not be the final destination. COP31 will serve as an intermediate milestone toward the second Global Stocktake in 2028 at COP33, where Parties will once again be required to assess collective progress in implementing the Paris Agreement. In this regard, the work beginning in Bonn and continuing through Antalya will matter not just for the immediate outcomes of the next COP, but for the quality of the path leading to the next major multilateral review of global climate action.
Article by Claudia Concaro, Elisa Mauri, and Anna Pelicci, Italian Climate Network delegates at COP30 in Belém.
Cover image: photo by IISD/ENB – Kiara Worth