NATIONAL CONTRIBUTIONS FROM 173 COUNTRIES ARE STILL MISSING
While the UNFCCC interim climate negotiations are underway in Bonn, the first reports on the new Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), also known as NDC 3.0, have been released. These are to be submitted by 2025 with plans for 2035.
So far, only 23 out of 196 countries (11.73%) have submitted new climate targets: 173 are still missing, representing a total of 79% of greenhouse gas emissions (data as of 2022).
To date, the “virtuous” countries are Andorra, Belize, Brazil, Canada, Cuba, Ecuador, the United Arab Emirates, Japan, Kenya, the Maldives, the Marshall Islands, Moldova, Montenegro, Nepal, New Zealand, Saint Lucia, the United Kingdom, Singapore, Switzerland, the United States, Zambia and Zimbabwe. They account for a total of 21% of emissions (data as of 2022), the main ones being the United States (11.2%), Brazil (3.1%), Japan (2.1%) and Canada (1.5%), while the other countries that have submitted their NDCs account for a total of 2.8%.
Of the countries that have yet to submit their NDCs, the following stand out: China (25.4% of emissions), India (7.5%), the European Union (6.1%), Russia (3.6%), Indonesia (3%), Iran (2%), Saudi Arabia (1.6%), Democratic Republic of Congo (1.4%), Mexico and South Korea (1.3%), Australia and South Africa (1.1%), and all others, which together account for 24.1%.
In the analysis conducted by E3G and Zero Carbon Analytics on 22 updated contributions (Belize submitted its contribution just a few days ago), it was found that: 10 countries have reaffirmed or strengthened their commitments to abandon fossil fuels; 7 countries mention the phasing out or removal of fossil fuel subsidies in certain sectors; only 3 countries – Canada, Singapore and the Marshall Islands – commit to having no fossil fuel subsidies. According to experts from E3G and Zero Carbon Analytics, only one industrialised economy, the United Kingdom, has submitted an NDC compatible with the 1.5°C target.
Several developing countries have submitted NDCs aligned with 1.5°C, conditional on international support, despite being minor emitters. Several countries have explicitly highlighted in their NDCs that economic support and energy security guarantees are needed for a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels.
According to the IPCC, to limit warming to 1.5°C, emissions must peak by 2025 and be reduced by 43% by 2030, but existing fossil fuel infrastructure alone could exceed the carbon budget if not mitigated. The IEA and IPCC agree that no new fossil fuel projects are needed and that 95% of energy investments should be converted to clean energy by 2035 to avoid a costly and unfair transition. As COP30 approaches, major emitters need to lead the phase-out of fossil fuels.
According to Climate Action Tracker (CAT), by mid-2025, there will be “very little to analyse”. Of the 40 countries whose performance CAT analyses, representing 85% of emissions, only 11 have submitted their climate targets.
Climate Action Tracker’s analysis confirms that the UK’s NDC appears to be in line with the 1.5°C target but specifies: ‘if it increases international funding.’ CAT then highlights another significant aspect: none of the new NDCs submitted so far by the approximately 40 governments monitored have strengthened their targets for 2030, which would be crucial given the need, repeatedly reiterated in negotiations, to halve emissions by the end of this decade. Without more ambitious targets for 2030, the report warns, it is likely that the 1.5°C limit will be significantly exceeded for several decades, even if rigorous targets for 2035 are met, which in turn must be compatible with 1.5°C.
Another extremely important issue raised by the Climate Action Tracker analysis is the role of emissions absorption, which governments are increasingly relying on to strengthen their targets, when they should be prioritising emissions reduction by abandoning the use of fossil fuels.
The NewClimate Institute had planned to add up the impact of the new NDCs, ‘but there is almost nothing to quantify and virtually no change compared to Baku in 2024,’ it says. ‘Many of the proposals are vague, and the NDCs of large countries that would make a difference, such as the EU, China and India, are still absent or under pressure, as in the case of the United States.’
The gap between the targets and the 1.5 °C average temperature increase has widened, signalling a weakening, not a strengthening, of climate action.
It is still possible to correct the course, thanks above all to the rapid and incremental development of renewable energies. As the NewClimate Institute points out, investments in clean energy are double those in fossil fuels, particularly oil and gas, but more needs to be done.
Article by Paolo Della Ventura, member of the Executive Board of the Italian Climate Network.
Cover image: UN Climate Change – Lara Murillo