BREAKING? THE DRAFT (LEAK) OF THE GLOBAL STOCKTAKE OF DECEMBER 12TH

At 6pm today December 12^th, a new unofficial draft of the text on the Global Stocktake was circulated among negotiators at COP28, the inventory of actions and policies introduced to date by countries which will form the basis of the new national plans (NDCs) to be submitted under the Paris Agreement in 2025.

The text, (apparently) drawn up by the Presidency, contains substantial changes compared to the last draft of the day before, certainly the result of negotiations in the last few hours with the various groups and delegations. In summary:

• The actions listed in the chapter on mitigation, therefore on the reduction of emissions, are no longer optional (“Parties could”), but rather mandatory (“Parties should”), the text is therefore stronger from the point of view of international obligations.
• On the exit from fossil sources, after the disappearance of the term “phase-out” from the draft of December 11^th, with the concept in that case re-inserted through the double wording, much weaker, of “replacement” of non-fossil sources compensated by CCS accompanied by “reduction” of production and consumption, a completely new terminology now seems to be used: it is said that the actions that Countries will have to undertake are an exit from fossil fuels, a “transitioning away” starting from this decade to achieve net zero emissions by 2050; a text that, if carried forward into the night, would be stronger than the previous one, not as much as saying “phase-out” but which seems to represent the highest point of compromise seen so far.
• For now, any reference to the connection between the new global finance goal (NCQG) and the Global Stocktake has disappeared.
• The consideration (previously deleted) on the absence of a shared definition of climate finance would be included in the text.
• The reference to the possible participation of developing Countries (and in this case we are thinking of Beijing) in the new finance for losses and damages seems to have disappeared in this leak: a European concession?

The draft we analyzed has not been officially uploaded to the UNFCCC website, it is not commented on by official sources but it has been widely circulated in COP chats. We await further updates in the coming hours.

Article by Jacopo Bencini, Policy Advisor – European and multilateral climate policies, UNFCCC Contact Point

Cover image: photo by Italian Climate Network