EXPECTATIONS FOR COP31

• COP31 is perceived by countries as the decisive moment to transition to the concrete implementation of the Paris Agreement. The relevance of the goal, the launch of the second Global Stocktake (GST), and the need to close the adaptation gap remain among the central themes.
• A cross-cutting need emerged among participating countries and across different working tables to attribute greater centrality to finance in the upcoming negotiations, considering it an essential element to make the agreed goals actionable.
• Countries reaffirm their commitment to multilateralism, viewing it as crucial to accelerate the energy transition and keep the 1.5°C goal alive.

Ahead of the closing of the June Climate Meetings, consultations on the vision and priorities for COP31 held on Tuesday in Bonn confirmed that the Antalya appointment will represent a decisive moment to transition to the concrete implementation of the Paris Agreement. Several points on the COP31 agenda were reiterated with the aim of strengthening ambition and setting concrete targets:

• Acceleration of electrification, with the goal of reaching a global electrification rate of 35% by 2035;
• A reduction of at least 25% in energy intensity within the building sector by 2035;
• Reaching a circular material use rate of at least 15% in the production and manufacturing sector by 2035, with significant benefits in terms of emission reductions and resource efficiency.

The COP30 Presidency, represented in the room by Ambassador Lilian Chagas, highlighted the results achieved in Belém ahead of the upcoming negotiations. According to Chagas, COP30 made progress on several fronts: politically, through the strengthening of multilateralism; legally, with 65 decisions approved and the launch of an acceleration programme aimed at strengthening the implementation of climate solutions and preventing countries from bearing the economic costs of climate-related disasters; and finally, regarding implementation, with 102 solution acceleration plans thanks to the involvement of various Parties, including civil society and the private sector. Lilian Chagas defined COP31 as “the COP of the future,” emphasizing that it will be marked by the continuity of collaboration between Australia, Turkey, and the COP30 Presidency, with the objective of ensuring the execution of the plans approved in Belém.

Sally Box, Vice-Chair of the negotiations and lead negotiator for COP31, stated that Australia intends to work on all elements of the negotiation, leveraging the outcomes of COP30 and cooperating with Brazil and Turchia to accelerate implementation globally and lay the groundwork for the second Global Stocktake (GST) through an inclusive and transparent process.

Iran then took the floor, signaling that there is “unfinished business” in the informal dialogues, particularly on Just Transition, where many Parties are not satisfied with the informal text presented by the Co-Chairs. The Women and Gender Constituency also intervened on Just Transition, calling for an additional session to discuss the operationalization of the Just Transition Mechanism (JTM).

Some participants pointed out the need to better integrate themes relevant to mountainous areas and farmers into the mitigation negotiations. In this regard, Kyrgyzstan proposed integrating the mountain dimension across all workstreams, highlighting how these contexts continue to be underfunded and lack visibility on the international climate agenda. The farmers’ group emphasized their central role for both adaptation and mitigation, while simultaneously pointing out the persistent insufficiency of resources dedicated to the sector and the necessity for a just transition to fully include rural communities.

The European Union stated that “this year must be dedicated to strengthening trust in the implementation of targets, submitting NDCs, and consolidating the goal of net-zero emissions and building resilient economies, in line with the 1.5°C target.” The challenge of COP31 will be to translate the expectations of various countries into concrete decisions, balancing scientific ambition with political and financial realities. China stated that multilateralism is both the best and the worst part of the process: its strength is cooperation, while its weakness is the difficulty of reaching consensus during complex moments. COP31 will have to demonstrate that the Paris goals are still achievable, but this requires not only ambitious declarations, but operational mechanisms, concrete financing, and a negotiating process that includes all voices, especially those that are often invisible.

Article by Silvia Petrignano, volunteer at the Italian Climate Network.

Cover image: UNFCCC