MITIGATION WORK PROGRAMME: ISLAND STATES CALL FOR MORE AMBITION

At COP30, the Island States began to heat up the discussion on the Mitigation Work Programme, with Vanuatu reminding the other countries in the room that we are experiencing a climate crisis and that we need to leave this COP with a strong commitment to mitigation. Tuvalu also pointed out that the Mitigation Work Programme (MWP) was established to increase ambition on mitigation in this crucial decade, but that the current MWP has failed to achieve any of these goals. 

For three days, we witnessed empty discussions on good practices, but without any substantial mention of phasing out fossil fuels, peak emissions or net-zero.  

Discussions began earlier this week with three questions suggested by the co-facilitators to guide the discussion:

1. What concrete improvements are planned for the MWP, and what role should the new digital platform play?
2. What key outcomes should emerge from the fifth and sixth global dialogues, and how should they be presented or contextualised?
3. How should the mitigation work programme proceed?

China immediately reiterated that the answer to the first question had been decided in Bonn, while the other two questions had not been defined in June during the interim negotiations and, therefore, there was no political mandate to negotiate in Belém, especially on the future of the Mitigation Work Programme.

In the negotiating room, a bloc of countries led by China and Saudi Arabia continued to obstruct discussions on the continuation of the MWP in the coming years, pointing out that the current mandate lasts until 2026 and that the decision on whether to continue the programme must be taken at COP31. 

On Thursday morning, the co-facilitators published an informal note that will serve as a basis for discussion for the next sessions. There is both good and bad news.

Among the good news are the references in the text to 1.5°C, science, deforestation, Indigenous Peoples and the circular economy. 

In fact, in the text of informal note:

• The temperature target of the Paris Agreement is reaffirmed.
• The 1.5°C target is mentioned and the need for urgent action and adequate (economic) support to maintain the 1.5°C target and tackle the climate crisis in this crucial decade is recognised.
• the importance of science is reaffirmed;
• the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities (CBDR) are recalled, taking into account different national circumstances;
• the topics of forests, the circular economy and waste management are mentioned;
• the key role of indigenous peoples as guardians of forests is recalled;
• it recalls the importance of integrated approaches to strengthen synergies with and between mitigation, adaptation, biodiversity conservation and sustainable development; 
• it reiterates the need to halt and reverse deforestation and forest degradation by 2030, while also addressing related issues of poverty eradication, sustainable development and food security;
• Reiterates the need to integrate the circular economy into value chains across various sectors.

Let’s move on to the less positive items.

The Mitigation Work Programme should play a crucial role in defining concrete commitments to reduce emissions through NDCs and towards the next ones. To limit global warming to 1.5°C, global emissions need to be reduced by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, then cut by 60% by 2035 and reach net zero by 2050. Unfortunately, to date, the working group has not defined concrete commitments to reduce emissions at the rates indicated above. 

However, the circulated text also mentions possible areas for improvement in the Mitigation Work Programme, including:

• the need to strengthen access to finance;
• greater collaboration with the Financial Mechanism;
• the need to invite more multilateral development banks, financial institutions and private sector entities to participate. 

Last year at COP29, developing countries blocked negotiations on mitigation, pointing out that the debate was focusing on demands from richer countries to step up their efforts to cut emissions, but without a solid agreement on finance, they were unwilling to move forward with negotiations on mitigation, deeply linking the two issues at the political level.  

With regard to the continuation of the Mitigation Work Programme, the text notes that the implementation of the work programme will continue until COP31, with the aim of taking a decision on its continuation in Australia or Turkey, i.e. in a year’s time. 

As the Vanuatu delegate pointed out, the Mitigation Work Programme should be a tool for reflecting science, respecting equity and saving lives, proposing concrete solutions aimed at increasing ambition on mitigation. It would therefore be a very negative signal for mitigation ambition if the programme were to be closed in the next twelve months. 

Thursday afternoon’s negotiations were adjourned to a new session to be held in the evening, probably around 1 a.m. Italian time. We will update you on this in the next COP Bulletin.

Article by Margherita Barbieri, Italian Climate Network delegate at COP30.

Cover image: © UN Climate Change – Zô Guimarães