BRAZIL’S GAMBLE: COVER DECISION POSSIBLE FOR FAREWELL TO FOSSIL FUELS
Negotiations at COP30 continue, and there seem to be some encouraging signs in the hall regarding some of the conference’s key themes. Meanwhile, on Wednesday, the Italian Climate Network delegation was informed of some truly important news.
Despite initial skepticism from many observers, rumors have been swirling since the first day of COP that the Brazilian Presidency is engaged day and night in “underground” consultations on a cover decision, a collective political declaration to be adopted at the final COP30 plenary session. This practice has been in use in recent years (the 2023 Global Stocktake was included in that year’s cover decision) and later abandoned in Baku in 2024.
Let’s be clear: in recent months we have often said that this COP would require a strong cover decision to have any political meaning, beyond the results of each individual roundtable discussion. This doesn’t mean that the presence of a cover decision in itself would be a sufficient success: the content is what really matters. In this case, not only is there already a draft on the third day of COP, but we could also be facing a major political gamble.
Italian Climate Network has been made aware of portions of the Presidency’s first draft
As far as we know, the high-level consultations on the cover decision are being personally managed by Brazilian Minister Marina Silva, in direct contact with President Lula and COP President Correa do Lago.
Also at a high level, there appears to be a political agreement at the highest level between Brazil and China on moving toward an ambitious cover decision, signed before the COP.
So what is Brazil counting on for this first BRICS-led cover decision?
Brazil’s challenge is ambitious: to bring all countries together on a new political mandate under the Paris Agreement, adopting a roadmap with dates and deadlines for a gradual and orderly phase-out of fossil fuels within a decade, based on the 2023 Global Stocktake text and aligned with science and the objectives of the Paris Agreement.
A reference to the historical responsibilities and peak emissions of some major economies is expected, perhaps predictably, with China ready to be a primary actor if Beijing’s emissions data for 2024 and 2025 are confirmed.
The language of the cover decision, as currently constructed by the Presidency, focuses on the topic of a just transition, a negotiating thread that should advance at a rapid pace given the higher-level political mandate and the requests of other Latin American countries in this regard. At the same time, the Brazilian Presidency also intends to use this political platform to reaffirm the role of science and the IPCC.
What happens now?
The news is definitely an encouraging sign, even knowing that we are only at the beginning of this journey: some pieces of the package will have to fall apart along the way to reach an agreement.
For the time being, it is still to be understood how Brazil will be able to “manage” the proactivity shown by Colombia, which has launched an international summit for spring 2026 on the very issue of fossil fuel phase-out and now wants greater prominence in Belém. But on the way toward COP30, Brazil has developed a rather delicate political balance within South America and would gain no negotiating advantage from giving one player more visibility than the others.
Meanwhile, here in Belém, negotiations are underway, and according to what we learned in the corridors, a first “polished” draft could be circulating as early as Friday or Saturday.
As always, we will keep you updated.