SUPER EL NIÑO AND THE CLIMATE CRISIS: UNDERSTANDING THE PHENOMENON TO BUILD RESILIENCE
Starting in the late 1500s, scientists observed in the tropical Pacific Ocean an oceanographic and climatic phenomenon that recurs at irregular intervals, is characterized by unusually high ocean temperatures, and has the strength to propagate across continents. This phenomenon is known as El Niño, which in Spanish literally means “the child” and refers to the name given by Peruvian fishermen, who noticed an unusual increase in Pacific Ocean water temperatures that tended to intensify toward the end of the year; for this reason, they named it El Niño de Navidad. Typically, El Niño peaks between November and January, but it can also begin much earlier.
The term “super El Niño,” on the other hand, refers to a particularly intense version of the phenomenon and does not come from any official scientific classification. As reported by The Guardian, during a “super El Niño” “sea surface temperature warming exceeds 2°C above normal”.
How does this El Niño work? Under typical conditions, steady trade winds push warm surface waters westward across the Pacific, from South America toward Asia. During an El Niño event, these trade winds weaken, causing warm surface waters to move eastward and reducing upwelling of cold water off the coast of South America. This shift may seem subtle, but its consequences are anything but. El Niño events occur every two to seven years and usually last close to a year, influencing rainfall, temperature and storm patterns worldwide.
Source: El Niño, Britannica
To monitor and predict this kind of weather pattern, scientists use a combination of satellite observations, ocean buoys and complex climate models. “Since the start of April, 13 different modelling groups have published estimates of future El Niño strength through at least September”, an article on CarbonBrief confirms. Recent forecasts, based on hundreds of model simulations, suggest a high likelihood that El Niño conditions will develop and persist through the year. Whether this evolves into a particularly strong event should become clearer by early fall.
The timing is critical. As global temperatures continue to rise due to human-driven climate change, even climate variability now unfolds on a warmer baseline. This means that a super El Niño could temporarily push global temperatures to new highs, increasing the chances of breaching the 1.5°C threshold above preindustrial levels, if only for a limited period.
What does this mean in practice? A super El Niño can act as a multiplier of extremes. Shifts in the jet stream can redirect storm tracks, bringing heavy rainfall to some regions while leaving others in prolonged drought. Parts of Southeast Asia and Australia often face drier conditions, while countries along the west coast of South America may experience intense flooding. Ocean conditions also change dramatically. Warmer surface waters reduce the upwelling of nutrients that sustain marine ecosystems, leading to declines in fish populations and cascading effects across the food chain. The consequences can be stark. For example, a 2006 study in Biology Conservation found that the penguin population dropped sharply due two strong El Niño events in the 80s and 90s on the Galápagos Islands as food sources became scarce. On land, the impacts extend to agriculture, water resources, and public health. Crop yields may fall due to heat stress, drought or flooding. Water shortages can emerge in already vulnerable regions, while other areas grapple with storm damage.
These changes are not isolated. Through atmospheric teleconnections, disruptions in the Pacific can influence weather patterns across Africa, the Americas, and beyond. In this way, El Niño underscores a fundamental reality: the Earth’s climate system is deeply interconnected. While scientists are still working to understand how climate change will influence the frequency of extreme El Niño events, there is growing consensus that their impacts are likely to intensify. Warmer oceans and altered atmospheric conditions create a backdrop where natural variability can produce more pronounced outcomes.
For communities around the world, this makes preparedness essential. Early warning systems, climate-informed planning, and resilient infrastructure can help reduce vulnerability to the floods, droughts, and heatwaves that often accompany strong El Niño events.
Ultimately, a super El Niño can be seen as more than a scientific phenomenon, rather a global signal. It reminds us that changes in one part of the planet can cascade across systems, affecting lives and livelihoods thousands of miles away. Understanding and anticipating these patterns is a crucial step toward building resilience in an increasingly unpredictable climate.
Article written by Silvia Petrignano, volunteer at Italian Climate Network