MITIGATION: CHINA AND SAUDI ARABIA ATTEMPT TO ERASE THE 1.5°C GOAL AND SCIENCE

After a first week of negotiations on the Mitigation Work Programme — which ended with little progress and even less ambition — a new draft was released on Sunday evening at COP30.

In terms of ambition, the draft still lacks concrete commitments on NDCs to reduce emissions in order to limit the increase in global average temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, as required by the Paris Agreement. To meet this goal, we recall, global emissions must be reduced by 43% by 2030 compared to 2019 levels, then cut by 60% by 2035, and reach net zero emissions by 2050.
None of this is mentioned in the new text.

On Monday, Saudi Arabia and China even asked for all references to the 1.5°C goal to be removed from the draft, arguing that it is no longer attainable because this threshold has already been reached – we discussed this here.

As explained in this article by the Scientific Director of Italian Climate Network, Serena Giacomin, the thresholds of the Paris Agreement do not refer to the temperature of a single year but to the multi-year moving average of global warming. “Reaching the 1.5°C goal is now a race against time with very low chances of success,” Giacomin emphasized. “But that is not a reason to stop running it.”
The 1.5°C target is a scientific and political benchmark that marks the difference between moderate damage and much more severe impacts, and every tenth of a degree avoided can save millions of lives.

Fortunately, the reference to 1.5°C and to science has been maintained in the new text.

• Reaffirming the Paris Agreement temperature goal of holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels,
• Reaffirming the need for urgent action and support to keep the 1.5 °C goal within reach and to address the climate crisis in this critical decade
• Recognizing the importance of the best available science for effective climate action and policymaking

From the text of Sunday, 16 November

The draft also includes a reference to the Global Stocktake, as requested by Colombia on Friday — a mention that Saudi Arabia had opposed. The text reiterates that “the objective of the work programme shall be to urgently scale up mitigation ambition and implementation in this critical decade in a manner that complements the Global Stocktake.”

Regarding the “Improvements” section (of the process), the new text refers to the need to improve access to financing — including grants and concessional loans — also through multilateral development banks, financial institutions, and the private sector. It also mentions inviting other UN bodies and initiatives — including the Green Climate Fund (GCF) and the Global Environment Facility (GEF) — to contribute in line with their respective mandates. The European Union had openly opposed this point, as it is objectively outside the mandate of the Working Group.

The other remaining key point of discussion regarding the Programme’s areas for improvement is the digital platform.

The new text also includes the option to launch a digital platform for mitigation, linked to the platform already active on non-market approaches provided for under Article 6, paragraph 8, of the Paris Agreement.
The request to connect the digital platform of the Mitigation Work Programme to the Article 6.8 platform comes from a group of G77+China countries, including Saudi Arabia, China, and India. We recall that Article 6.8 of the Paris Agreement concerns forms of international climate cooperation that do not involve market-based mechanisms. By linking the Mitigation Work Programme to Article 6.8, these countries are seeking to tie mitigation to international support in terms of finance, technology transfer, and capacity-building.

Finally, regarding the continuation of the MWP, the text seems to agree that the work programme will continue for one year until COP31, with the aim of adopting a decision on its continuation at that session. As we reported here, the Brazilian Presidency is working in parallel on a mitigation roadmap which, if approved, could become a potential duplicate of the Working Group.

Article by Margherita Barbieri, delegate of Italian Climate Network

Cover image: UN Climate Change – Zô Guimarães